In 1965 the technological landscape looked completely different from what it looks like in this day and age. Only in the last few years have hybrid and electric vehicles really entered the mass market. The technologies that these vehicles use will be further developed. Breakthroughs might also occur in other fields of energy technologies like hydrogen, or even something completely new could be discovered. We don’t and we simply can’t know right now. For society it might be good that different mobility technologies will come into play. If for instance cars can either be fueled by electricity or hydrogen, this will create competition between both technologies. For a small island like Texel, two competing technologies is less preferable since both technologies require their own separate infrastructure. However, if Texel wants to remain a host for large amounts of tourists (with both types of vehicles), the island will need to facilitate both infrastructures.
Another trend that might become important in the future, but is not directly linked to mobility at first sight is 3D printing. Nowadays people buy their goods in a shop or order them online and get them delivered to their homes. In the future people might be able to print these goods at home. This will have huge implications on mobility. Goods (apart from raw material cartridges) no longer have to be transported across the globe. People don’t have to leave their homes to buy new goods. This will change mobility streams on a global scale, but also on a local scale like on Texel.
Throughout this research it has become clear that when real changes need to be made to an environment, it is very important to involve all actors from the start of the project and listen to what their needs and interests are. When the designers of a system know what the concerns are of a group of actors, these concerns can be transformed into values which can be incorporated into the design.
Actors should not only be involved in the design of the system but also in the actual system itself. The TESO case has shown that this company has become a success partly because a lot of Texelaars have shares in the company. The company is embedded in society. This is something that the future system needs to incorporate as well. The system needs to be something the Texelaars can be proud of.
5.3 Culture and behaviour
Transforming Texel into a sustainable island requires a lot of cultural and behavioral changes from the Texelaars. Change might be experienced as threatening, especially when it is forced upon an individual. Again this can be overcome by involving the Texelaars in the change. Robbins and Judge (2014) describe resistance to change in an organisation, but their steps on how to overcome resistance to change are generally applicable. The authors describe several tactics which can be gathered under involving the actors that are subject to the change. These are: education and communication, participation, building support and commitment, develop positive relationships, implement changes fairly and select people who accept change.
5.4 Relations between different elements
When the Texelaars go through a change, this will also reflect on the tourists on the island. They will be inspired by how the Texelaars have adapted and will take this back home. Large companies will experience the same effect. When small entrepreneurs change into a more sustainable business, the larger companies on the island can’t lag behind. Texel could be a frontrunner for the rest of the nation.
5.5 Rules and regulations that organize the system
Rules and regulations should not limit the change to the system but facilitate the change. A good example of how regulation is hampering change is the way that Uber is being banned in a lot of cities right now (de Volkskrant). Change will always often be ahead of regulation. The regulator needs the facilitate initiatives, and judge them correctly. If some parties are unhappy with the change, these conflicts should be discussed with all parties involved.
5.6 Actions for suggested changes in the mobility system before 2020
In 2020 Texel needs to be well on it’s way towards sustainability. The development in technology still is not easy to predict, but since the timeframe is a lot smaller, some predictions can be done. According to Antoine Maartens from Urgenda it is impossible to think that Texel is fully sustainable by 2020. It is however likely that Texel will be more sustainable by 2020 than it is now, and some of the solutions that are presented in chapter 3 could be implemented by 2020. These are the carpooling system, the greenwheel style rental system, the bike system and the bus system. In this section we will list the actions that should be taken, and the actors that should take those actions to secure the installment of these suggestions by 2020. For the other two systems a more long term vision is required. We can therefore be short about the actions that are required on these initiatives before 2020. Simply more research is required to determine the feasibility of these initiatives.
5.6.1 Carpooling app
As stated in chapter 3, this idea could potentially be implemented very quickly with little costs. The main barrier for this plan however is how to get people out of their own cars and into someone else's, or to take someone (maybe a stranger) in their own car. A feasibility study can be ordered by the municipality. This study can give an indication of the number of people who are willing to contribute to a carpooling initiative. In the same time the study could also try to formulate why people who are not willing to contribute refuse. After this research a decision has to be taken on the continuation of the project. When the project gets a green light a marketing campaign accompanied by an app that brings potential carpoolers together needs to be developed and launched. The municipality can do this in cooperation with subsidy from higher governmental bodies and mobility organizations like the ANWB.
Estimated time frame: 1-3 years
5.6.2 Greenwheel styled rental
From our interview with Antoine Maartens we found out that this idea is already being launched at the moment by an entrepreneur on Terschelling named Hans Werner. We have interviewed mr. Werner to gain insights in his experience with his company on Terschelling and possible expansion on Texel. When the company turns out to be a success, the scale could be increased by expanding to Texel, but more research will be needed on how to adapt the service for Texel. Mr. Werner has already established contact with the municipality of Texel, but he is also very clear in his vision. When he can’t promise the inhabitants of Texel improved mobility at a lower price, he will not launch the service on Texel. Of course, if mr. Werner would decide not to launch the company on Texel, other entrepreneurs could try. The interview shows which steps are taken on Terschelling to ensure a successful launch of the company.
Estimated time frame: depending on success on Terschelling, 2-6 years
To increase the number of bikes used on the island, the incentive to bring, buy or rent a bike needs to be raised. Bikes need to become a preferred way of transport. This requires action from both entrepreneurs in the biking/hospitality business as from the municipality. Together these groups could start researching why people that pick cars over bikes do so. When this is known, the parties can start to try and turn this around in order to increase the amount of people that pick bikes. This could for example lead to an indication that biking is hard to interconnect with grocery shopping, and that the "bakfietsen" type of bikes should be able to be rented close to shopping areas. An increase in the number of bikes calls for an increase of scale of bike rentals/shops and the amount of maintenance they are able to supply. The municipality needs to make sure that the infrastructure can handle the increase amount of bikers.
Estimated time frame: 2 years
5.6.4 Bus system
Some good initiatives like the Texelhopper are already being implemented at this moment. When these turn out to be successful, more investments can be made in order to make the service more environmentally friendly. This could mean introducing electric/bio fueled busses.
Estimated time frame: 0 years for the system, more than 5 years for the investments in new busses
de Volkskrant. (2014). Zwarte week voor uber: binnen twee dagen op vier plaatsen verboden. Collected from: http://www.volkskrant.nl/economie/zwarte-week-voor-uber-binnen-twee-dagen-op-vier-plaatsen-verboden~a3807305/ the 7th of January 2015